About us

MUFCBetting is a football odds model with the working shown. The front page is running a football match — chances created, chances taken, corners, cards, a clock that runs out — and every price beside it is computed from that match, from exactly where it stands, while you watch.

It is not a bookmaker, an affiliate, a tipping service or a news site. You cannot place a bet here, there is no account to open, no money changes hands, and there is no link to anywhere that would take a stake.

It is not the club's website

Independent and unofficial. Not affiliated with, endorsed by or connected to Manchester United Football Club in any way. It is an independent site published by Purple Imp on a domain we own. There is no club crest, no kit, no club photography and no player name anywhere on it, and there never will be while it stays in this shape. The name describes who the site is written for, not who it comes from — the same way any fan site's name does.

If you are looking for the club, its own website is the place to go. If you are looking for real fixtures, real team news or real prices, this is not that site either, and the next section explains why.

Why the clubs and the players are invented

The design this site was built from showed live-looking odds against real opponents, a live scoreline, a league table of real clubs, transfer rumours and a news column. Every one of those is a statement about something real that nobody here checked, and there is no feed on this server that could check them.

The scoreline is the sharpest version of the problem. A simulated United 2-1 <real club>, 67' is indistinguishable from a real live score the moment anyone screenshots it, and somebody could act on it. No amount of badging fixes that. So the twelve clubs here are invented, the league they play in is invented, and the page says so in the hero, on every market card and in the footer.

The players are the same problem in a more personal form. The engine hands goals and assists to whoever it is given; against a real name, that is a fabricated record of a real person's season published on a betting site. So there are no names — shirt numbers and roles, and nothing else.

What is real on this site

• The arithmetic. Every price is one divided by the share of 3,500 simulated finishes that outcome took. Every book on the page comes to exactly 100.0%, and the markets agree with each other — add up the scorelines with three or more goals in the correct-score grid and you get the over 2.5 price back, because they are two views of the same simulations.
• The calibration. The model produces 1.50 goals for the home side and 1.25 for the away side, 2.75 in a match, 52% over 2.5 goals, 7% goalless and 10.4 corners. Those are Premier League numbers, and they are re-measured over a hundred thousand simulated matches by the test suite rather than asserted in a comment. The first attempt ran at 3.13 goals a game and the tests caught it.
• The league. Every result in the table was played out a minute at a time by the same engine that prices the live match, from twenty-four attack and defence ratings and nothing else. When the match on screen finishes, the rest of that round is played and the table moves.
• The calculators. The overround tool and the accumulator slip do ordinary arithmetic, and it lives in the tested half of the code rather than in the page.

What is not real

• The clubs, the league, the fixtures, the table and the form.
• The match on the front page and every price on it.
• Any connection to Manchester United Football Club.
• Any suggestion that watching this helps anyone pick a winner. It does not, and it is not meant to.

The tests

The model is checked by a suite that runs without a browser. It re-measures the goal rates, the result split, the over/under and both-teams-to-score rates and the corner count from a hundred thousand matches; it asserts that every market's book is exactly 100%, that the correct-score grid and the match-result market cannot disagree, that a goal shortens the right price and lengthens the other one, and that the schedule is a proper double round robin in which no club plays itself or plays anyone twice.

It also plays six hundred live matches through the on-screen code and checks that the results come out where the pricing runs say they should. If those two ever drift apart, the board would stop describing the match beside it, and nothing else would notice.